What To Expect In Sudan

A referendum in southern Sudan next year will determine if this region will become a nation independent from the state currently controlled by the northern al-Bashir government.  Clashes within the northern Darfur region, over the central Nuba mountains, and between the North and the South have raged for 22 years.  The varied distribution of oil deposits throughout the nation means that it matters where boundaries are drawn, and there exist substantial incentives to flexing some military muscle if it means securing future revenue streams.

The Khartoum government has long been the bad guy, receiving sanctions and unending denunciations for its participation in ethnic cleansing and/or “genocide” in Darfur.  Political conflict between the North and the Southern SPLM (Sudanese People’s Liberation Movement) has been the most newsworthy of late as late due to largely unpredictable and seemingly positive outcomes.  As summarized by the BBC, fighting officially ended in 2005, but clashes have continued, pushing the intervention of African Union troops.  However, President al-Bashir has asserted that he will accept the outcome of the 2011 referendum without opposition, and the setting of a date for the independence vote is, at the very least, a cause for cautious optimism.  That said, words do not seem to mean much in Sudan.  Having survived for so long in the middle ground between pariah and invisibility, Khartoum has become skilled in rhetoricizing its flagrant participation in genocide or avoiding the human rights spotlight.  If anything, al-Bashir’s government has proved that it is possible to deny and distract from horrible atrocity until the international community gets bored.  So, as expected, there are concerns about what will happen next year.  As the BBC reports:

AU commission chairman Mr Ping said the AU was “very concerned” about Sudan.

We have a feeling that we are sitting on a powder keg,” he said.

He described the sequence of events as a “catastrophic scenario”.

Our correspondent says his outlook is similar to many national leaders, who hate the thought that Southern Sudan becoming independent could set a precedent.

What to expect: unpredictability.  There is little value in paying attention to the public face of both Khartoum and its southern opposition.  However, the most effective pro-independence strategy may rely on pressuring China and Russia to support the referendum’s outcome.  These nation’s significant oil investments in the region make them powerful economic overlords with potential bargaining might.  Until, both states have opposed sanctions and peacekeeping interventions in the United Nations Security Council, but there may be new space to shame them into thinking beyond their pockets.

–Gabe Tourek